From dream Lauri Markkanen trades to favorite under-the-radar deals, we analyze the most notable offseason moves so far and the potential ones still on the table
Much like the Boston Celtics’ run to this year’s title, 2024 NBA free agency has been quick, methodical, and efficient. With the NBA’s new second apron rules hovering over the league, there haven’t been the usual drastic twists and turns we’re accustomed to. Instead, the movement has been more subtle. Paul George to Philly, Klay Thompson to Dallas, and a slew of other moves that are notable but not mind-blowing.
To wrap our heads around all the action and examine how it will affect next season, The Ringer paneled four of its writers to examine the ripple effects of NBA free agency so far.
Who is the biggest threat to the Celtics in the East?
Danny Chau: Knicks. Matching up with Boston means having to get a little weird. With the number of versatile wing defenders on this squad, New York is now as well suited as anyone to contain the best five-out team in basketball. The Knicks have not only raised their talent quotient immeasurably with the acquisition of Mikal Bridges but have also created an ecosystem that will allow Julius Randle, notably absent during the whole Knicksanity playoff run, to play the small-ball 5 role that was a significant reason for his breakout with the Pelicans in 2018-19. Losing Isaiah Hartenstein is a bummer, but I’m curious to see how much of an impact Randle’s third act—now under far less pressure and scrutiny—can make on this sweetheart Knicks squad.
Matt Dollinger: 76ers. It’s been a tough 14 months for Joel Embiid, having to watch both Nikola Jokic and the Boston Celtics win titles while he endured costly injuries and added more early playoff exits to his résumé. But this could be the year he gets his revenge. Paul George and Tyrese Maxey are basically the best running mates imaginable, and Daryl Morey will find ways to fill out the roster before the spring. A year ago, the Nuggets looked just as dominant as the 2024 Celtics, then came up short in their repeat campaign. We’ve had six champs in six years. Dominance is almost impossible to maintain.
Zach Kram: Knicks. New York went 20-3 with OG Anunoby in the lineup during the regular season and—while they lost Hartenstein—just added Bridges to the conference’s deepest rotation. Josh Hart and Donte DiVincenzo are top-100 players who will come off the bench next season. The 76ers and Bucks have more star power, but the Knicks have the best team outside Boston.
Michael Pina: Magic. Every candidate has a caveat. The Sixers added George, but he’s 34, can’t stay healthy, and will team up with an MVP center who’s also hurt every spring and has never defeated Boston in a playoff series. The Knicks traded for Bridges but lost Hartenstein and have real questions about their frontcourt. Both are contenders who will be popular answers to this question, but I’ll zag, hard, right now and say the Orlando Magic. Part of this is because I think the Magic are ascending, physical, and defensively hellacious, with several individuals who match up with the Celtics about as well as any team can. Jonathan Isaac is an absolute demon. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope adds some necessary outside shooting and open-court dynamism and is a critical linchpin who wins everywhere he goes. Paolo Banchero, Franz Wagner, and Jalen Suggs will all be better next year. They have depth, continuity, and athleticism. This response sounds absurd and will certainly upset multiple fan bases, but if Banchero makes the type of Year 3 leap he certainly can, Orlando will be a monster.
What’s your favorite under-the-radar deal so far?
Chau: Naji Marshall to Dallas on a three-year, $27 million contract is unbelievable value for the Mavs. On their own, Marshall’s outrageous 7-foot-1 wingspan and lateral fluidity make him an incredibly versatile defender, never mind the hellaciousness that he brings on that end. If he can shoot his 3s at or near last year’s percentages on all the wide-open looks he’ll be fielding from Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving, he’ll more than fill the void left by the departing Derrick Jones Jr.
Kram: Set legacies and emotional attachments aside: Is it too soon to say that a healthy De’Anthony Melton is a better player, at $12.8 million over one year, than a 34-year-old Klay Thompson, at $50 million over three years? Advanced stats certainly seem to think that the Warriors got a bargain:
Pina: I don’t know how under the radar Chris Paul to the Spurs is, but so much about this is incredibly satisfying. The 12-time All-Star is 39 years old and far from the Point God he used to be. Who cares? The stakes are as low for him as they’ve ever been. He’s still a pick-and-roll genius who makes his teammates better. He’s still a knockdown shooter who, last year, drilled 42.3 percent of his spot-up 3s and 47 percent of his pull-up 2s. Now, for 25-30 minutes every night, he gets to run an offense that features Victor Wembanyama. The Spurs can make the play-in, which is fun. Big picture: CP3 is an incredibly sensible teammate for Wembanyama, he’s someone who’s seen and done it all, and he can help the next face of the NBA become exactly that sooner rather than later.
Dollinger: Maybe this doesn’t mean much coming from the biggest Jonathan Bender fan of all time, but I love that the Pacers took a flier on James Wiseman. Wiseman has now played in 147 NBA games since being drafted no. 2 in 2020, yet he’s still the same age (23) as four guys who just went in the first round. Golden State never made sense for him, and Detroit is a basketball wasteland. The Pacers can develop him as a second- or third-string center and bring him along without the daunting pressure of trying to extend a dynasty. Also, strangely, the Pacers also now have the second (Wiseman), eighth (Obi Toppin), 12th (Tyrese Haliburton), and 14th (Aaron Nesmith) picks from the 2020 draft. And Killian Hayes is a free agent!
Whose 2025 Finals chances do you like more right now: Dallas Mavericks or Oklahoma City Thunder?
Kram: Thunder. Dallas and Oklahoma City both scored exactly 636 points in their second-round clash, which was decided by free throws in the final seconds of Game 6. The two teams were basically even in the playoffs, after OKC was superior in the regular season. And while the Mavericks have spent the summer shuffling around roughly equivalent players, the Thunder added Alex Caruso and Hartenstein without sacrificing any first-round picks that they could use for further upgrades. The answer is the Thunder, and it’s not all that close right now.
Chau: It’s been five years since Sam Presti made the Paul George trade that landed him his future superstar in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and more than a handful of first-round picks. Five years later, with the fruits of an epic rebuild plain to see, it’s safe to say that he’s really good at this. The Thunder have become a defense-oriented, five-out juggernaut out West—and that was before they added Caruso. And now, they’ve finally shored up their biggest weakness with the signing of junkyard-dog center Hartenstein. It’s not just the 2025 Finals. With any luck, they’ll be contending for the next half decade.
Dollinger: We haven’t seen a team lose in the Finals and make it back the next season since LeBron was in Cleveland. The Mavericks went on a fairy-tale run as a fifth seed that made it to the Finals, but the Thunder were dominant all season, posting 57 wins while leaning heavily on their younger players. Add another year of experience and some Presti-perfect additions, and Oklahoma City could very well be a full-blown juggernaut next season. Dallas has added some smart reinforcements, but banking on Irving (32 years old) and Thompson (34) to hold up is no sure thing.
Pina: Thunder. This is a no-brainer. The Mavericks have the best player, but the Thunder have a much deeper team and way more on- and off-court flexibility. In adding Caruso and Hartenstein, OKC solved last year’s most glaring problems while building what should somewhat easily be the best defense in the league. They’re deep enough to have an answer for pretty much any problem. They’re talented enough to overwhelm. They have shotmaking, 3-point shooting, and an attack-the-rim mentality. Good luck to the rest of the Western Conference.
What’s the Lauri Markkanen trade you want to see?
Pina: I’m someone who wants the Houston Rockets to do pretty much nothing and just stand pat, but Markkanen is the rare star whom they should be willing to (nearly) break the bank for. His age, price, skill set, and two-way versatility are all rarely found on the trade market. Markkanen is a 7-footer who can shoot 3s on the move. That’s … beneficial. He doesn’t need the ball to lift his team’s offensive floor and has enough moves off the bounce to punish opponents that throw a wing on him.
The Rockets have a chest of draft picks (including their own from 2027, 2029, and 2031 and Phoenix’s in 2027) and almost too much young talent. A consolidation trade is coming at some point. The Jazz should take advantage of it now.
Chau: Whatever trade gets Lauri to Golden State—even if it means giving up on Jonathan Kuminga. Markkanen would be the best offensive player that Steph Curry has played with since Kevin Durant. And there are untold depths left to explore in a Curry-centric offense that can suddenly play off a 7-footer who flirts with 50/40/90 splits, can create for himself off the dribble, comfortably shoots off movement, and dunks everything within reach. Steph deserves to play with someone like Lauri.
Dollinger: Remember the Milwaukee Bucks? And that Greek guy? That’s the team that I wish had the ammo to get this deal done because a Dame-Lauri-Giannis trio would be devastating and would make the Bucks a legit contender again. But the Bucks don’t have the picks to satiate Danny Ainge. Golden State has the assets and picks, but Mike Dunleavy Jr. is probably terrified of being swindled by Ainge. I would be, too.
Kram: None. Keep him in Utah so that we can see the complete chaos of a conference with 14 teams that are at least decent (sorry, Portland).
Which team is under the most pressure the rest of the summer?
Kram: So, are the Miami Heat really just planning to run it back with a roster that finished eighth in the East, with a soon-to-be 35-year-old Jimmy Butler entering the last season of his contract (pending a player option)?
Pina: Are the Heat really not going to do anything significant for the second summer in a row? It’s hard to believe that Pat Riley will sit idly by as the rest of the Eastern Conference rises around him, again. The Heat’s entire cultural ethos essentially boils down to “we have enough,” but they’re clearly trending in the wrong direction, with 90 combined wins in the past two seasons. It appears they do not, in fact, have enough.
Dollinger: Lakers. I mean, just watch this clip of JJ Redick and tell me he’s not being held hostage and forced to read this off a teleprompter:
“Bronny has earned this through hard work… There’s a lot to like about his game”
Head Coach JJ Redick on Bronny pic.twitter.com/gErxwOWWvi
— NBA TV (@NBATV) July 2, 2024
Chau: Lakers. I love DeMar DeRozan, but if that’s the plan, that’s nowhere near enough.