Which top seed could go down early? Who will ultimately make the Finals? And which star could be on the move after an early exit? We preview the postseason.
With the first round of the NBA playoffs tipping off on Saturday, The Ringer paneled six of its NBA writers to preview the action. We’ve already asked the biggest questions of the first round and provided a Hater’s Guide for each series. Now, with all the matchups locked in, we can dive a little deeper. Below, you’ll find our predictions for the most likely first-round upset, this postseason’s biggest breakout player, the two Finals teams, and the biggest ripple effect from these playoffs. Let’s dive in.
Which First-Round Series Is Most Likely to End in an Upset?
Michael Pina: It’s too dramatic to say the Milwaukee Bucks have no chance if Giannis Antetokounmpo doesn’t play, but it’s also plenty fair to lean that way. Coming off such a weird regular season, I can’t see Damian Lillard and Khris Middleton providing enough offensive production to keep up with one of the most efficient teams in the league. The Pacers aren’t total slouches on defense anymore, either. Even with Giannis, this isn’t an ideal matchup for Milwaukee. Without him, it might be over quickly.
Howard Beck: Is it really an upset if the Pacers take out a wounded, wonky Bucks team that won’t have Giannis Antetokounmpo to start the series (or perhaps at all)? Perhaps not, but history won’t care about the details—just as no one cared a year ago when the wounded, wonky Bucks were taken out by the Heat in the first round. Even at full strength, the Bucks never reached the highs they expected after swapping Jrue Holiday for Damian Lillard last summer, or after swapping Mike Budenholzer for Adrian Griffin, or Griffin for Doc Rivers. An early exit seemed possible even before Giannis strained his left calf. Now it seems certain.
Seerat Sohi: The Wolves are running into their worst matchup at the worst time. If there is a Wolves player who could counter the Suns’ pull-up efficiency (no. 1 in the league) on offense and Anthony Edwards overloads on defense, it’s Karl-Anthony Towns. In theory, Towns’s post-ups could wear down Kevin Durant and Phoenix’s wings over the course of a series, and punish the Suns’ small, spacey, and hyperefficient units. But it was also Towns who, in his second game back from a meniscus tear, had more fouls (four) and turnovers (five) than made shots (three). It’s also Towns who, healthy or not, historically coughs the ball up under postseason duress. Barring an unlikely triumph from Towns—and hot shooting from Jaden McDaniels, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, and the many wings Phoenix will be happy to leave open for the sake of stopping Edwards—the Suns should advance.
Rob Mahoney: The case for the Pacers is right there—so much so that I almost feel guilty picking them as an upset. A lopsided season series. A huge midseason trade after that season series that further tilts this matchup in Indiana’s favor. The uncertain status of Giannis Antetokounmpo, when the Bucks have (understandably!) fared quite poorly without their two-way superstar. A style of play that will be a real challenge for Milwaukee’s veteran group, upending whatever advantages a more experienced team might have in the postseason. The Bucks have played better, more professional basketball since Doc Rivers took over as head coach back in January, but months later they still don’t seem to know who they are as a team. There’s never been a whiff of that doubt with the Pacers this season, and through that clarity lies a path to the second round.
Zach Kram: I might have picked the Pacers to upset the Bucks even if Giannis Antetokounmpo were healthy. That’s how well Indiana matches up with Milwaukee, which led to a 4-1 record against the division rival this season. Granted, all those games came before a hamstring strain slowed Tyrese Haliburton—but they also came before Pascal Siakam joined the Pacers, giving them another scoring outlet and their best possible defender against Giannis, who averaged 42 points per game against the Pacers this season.
Even if the Bucks’ best player misses only a game or two in this series, that should be enough for Indiana to steal home-court advantage. If he misses more than that, the Pacers should be heavy favorites to advance.
Danny Chau: Pacers over Bucks, in seven (after coming back from a 3-1 series deficit).
Who Will Be This Postseason’s Breakout Player?
Beck: Since becoming the third pick of the 2015 draft, Kristaps Porzingis has been a franchise savior (Knicks), a bust (also Knicks), a presumed costar to a generational talent (Luka Doncic), a failed costar to that generational talent, a stat-stuffing revelation on a bad team (Wizards), and now, finally, just a really talented, really important role player on a real contender (Celtics). As a unicorn (the nickname given to him by Kevin Durant), Porzingis has been surpassed by younger, more versatile players. But his best assets—length, mobility, shot blocking, and 3-point shooting—make him a perfect fit in a lineup rich with elite scorers. Of course, Porzingis isn’t a mystery to NBA fans. But a title run would cast him in a new light. Porzingis isn’t a franchise star and doesn’t need to be. But by late June, he might be a champion.
Chau: OG Anunoby has had a big playoff moment before—oh what glory!—but there’s the Bubble and there’s the Garden. Anunoby played 23 games for the Knicks this season and had a positive plus-minus in every single game, an unprecedented feat. Plus-minus has been tracked since the 1996-97 season; that 23-game streak would tie Kevin Garnett in his first year as a Celtic for the fifth-longest streak. Include OG’s final two games with the Raptors, and his streak of 25 games would tie Ray Allen (also in his first year as a Celtic) for second-longest, just below Malcolm Brogdon and above Steph Curry in his first MVP season.
Anunoby’s impact has been felt as an omnipositional defender, an opportune cutter, and a reliable perimeter threat from the corners. It’ll be impossible to miss in the postseason, when consistency (and specifically the things that OG is consistent at) holds magnitudes more weight. He isn’t a classic breakout candidate, but if the streets are right about this being the Knicks’ year, the world will recognize just how important Anunoby is.
Mahoney: I’m picking OG, too. The steely 26-year-old forward already has an incredible playoff moment to his name, because—as you may have heard—he doesn’t shoot trying to miss. What Anunoby doesn’t have is the kind of magical playoff run that would really elevate his profile. The longtime Raptor missed the entirety of Toronto’s 2019 playoff run due to appendicitis, making him technically a champion but not really. This could be Anunoby’s first, best chance to make it out of the second round on the court, this time with a charismatic Knicks team that will win a lot of people over along the way. There’s still a significant number of basketball fans who don’t fully appreciate what it means when OG puts the clamps on someone defensively. Soon enough they’ll have a chance to watch him lock up some of the best players in the world, over and over and over again, frustrating them and delighting everyone else to no end.
Kram: League Pass subscribers know how good Jalen Williams is. But does the casual fan? The second-year Thunder wing wasn’t a top draft pick, hasn’t yet been an All-Star, and isn’t one of the two most famous players on his team. That combination makes him ripe for a broader breakout on the national stage.
Williams is productive (19.1 points, 4.5 assists, and 4.0 rebounds per game), efficient (58 percent on 2-pointers, 43 percent on 3s), and clutch (league-best 68 percent shooting in close-and-late situations). He’s a capable creator and strong defender. And by the end of OKC’s long run through this postseason, Williams will be much more of a household name as one of the league’s brightest young stars.
Sohi: Jalen Williams. JDub. J-Dawg. A Gen Z crossover between Paul George and Kawhi Leonard, whose presence is the reason the Thunder use freaking Shai Gilgeous-Alexander as a crunch-time decoy to set up Mr. Fourth Quarter. The dexterous depth of Williams’s bag is endless, full of hesitations, spins, hooks, pullups, and faders, that—unlike most players his age—he uses with a calculated eye toward hunting north-south efficiency, by way of drives, kicks, and dump-offs. Like his All-NBA counterpart, Williams is aggressive but methodical, one of the many reasons the Thunder have enjoyed the spoils of youth without incurring many of its follies. Put both three-level scoring and playmaking ability together in the Thunder’s five-out context and you’ve got an unpredictable, multilayered offense that should thrive in the postseason.
Pina: I badly wanted to put Nuggets wing Peyton Watson on an All-Defensive team this season. If there were three teams to fill, he probably would’ve cracked one. Watson is the athletic X factor Denver needs, a hyper, long rabble-rouser who creates turnovers, blocks shots, and does an amazing job dancing between his help assignment and whomever he’s guarding. The closeout speed and shot contests are marvelous.
Watson played only 14 minutes during last year’s playoffs, but has been a part of Michael Malone’s rotation all season, where his live-wire energy has earned minutes at the end of some competitive games. Without a 3-point shot—he hardly ever takes or makes them—opposing teams won’t pay him any mind on the perimeter, but the Nuggets hope Watson can someday replicate Aaron Gordon’s impact from the dunker spot. That day may come in this postseason. He’s a natural lob target with improving instincts around the basket. Ignore him at your own peril—his team always finds a way to make defenses ignore the wrong guy at the wrong time.
Who Will Make and Win the NBA Finals?
Sohi: Nuggets over Celtics. The East, with Jimmy Butler, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Donovan Mitchell, and Joel Embiid hampered (and Jalen Brunson exhausted), is wide open for the Celtics. And Denver will be fine in the West. Like last year, Denver will make sure Jamal Murray or Nikola Jokic is almost always on the court, lean on Aaron Gordon to play center, and hope for a few timely breakout performances from Peyton Watson. Boston’s frontcourt variability will make it tough, but Jokic will solve the Celtics in six.
Pina: Celtics over Nuggets. These are the two most dominant teams in the NBA. Boston’s regular season was historic. Denver’s regular season was a powerful follow-up to its championship run. Both rosters are chock-full of playoff experience and All-Star talent. Almost everyone involved has already competed in an NBA Finals.
This battle would be the most appropriate way to cap 2023-24, and if we get it, neither side will have a humongous advantage over the other. It would be an epic slugfest featuring constant in-game adjustments and fascinating individual matchups. The Nuggets have already scaled this mountain, while last summer the Celtics evolved their roster to address some consequential shortcomings that have kept them from doing the same thing. From several angles, strategically and physically, Boston vs. Denver can be basketball at its highest form.
Chau: Nuggets over Celtics. Chalk neutralizes the stomach acids that can occasionally run up the lining of the esophagus—the feeling aptly described as heartburn. Chalk is used in industrial processes like iron and refined sugar production as a purification agent. And I think that’s why I’m rooting for chalk: the best player of the past half decade versus the most statistically undeniable team we’ve seen in years. There’s purity in that clash, both in tactics and narrative. I just want to see it play out. The Celtics have net rating on their side. The Nuggets have a Serbian proverb: Trust yourself and your horse.
Beck: Celtics over Nuggets? Yes, that’s a question mark at the end of a prediction. Sue me. I have two contradictory thoughts on this postseason: The first is that in this age of unparalleled parity, anything is posssiblllle! Thunder-Knicks? Sure! Lakers-Sixers? Why not? An appearance by the Wolves, Clippers, or Mavericks? Totally possible! Then again . . . maybe this is just as simple as the results suggest. That the defending champion Nuggets are still (Nikola Jokic’s) head and shoulders above the rest. That the 64-win Celtics are too dominant to stumble now. That the obvious favorites will do what obvious favorites do. The Celtics are deep, talented, versatile, and playoff-hardened—and ready to finally win it all.
Mahoney: Nuggets over Celtics. I wish any other team in the field had created some reasonable doubt in the outcome we’ve been staring down for months, but all the relative chaos in both conferences seems to only tilt things toward the long-established favorites. That’s not to say that Denver and Boston are unbeatable; there’s still an opportunity here for things to get weird, but in a way that creates more of a general feeling of uncertainty rather than confidence in any one challenger in particular. The good news: The chalky pick would make for a deeply satisfying Finals. Denver executes more reliably than any team in the league, and Boston has more options and adjustments at its disposal than any other potential Nuggets opponent out there. I don’t think the Celtics will actually be able to stop Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray in the end, but I’d love to see them try.
Kram: Celtics over Thunder. It’s no fun if everyone picks Celtics-Nuggets, is it? So I’ll mix it up. Picking the Celtics requires almost no justification, given that Boston just completed one of the greatest statistical seasons of all time. The 14-win gap between the Celtics and the East’s no. 2 team is the largest since the NBA-ABA merger, meaning it would be a catastrophe if Boston didn’t reach the Finals.
In the West, meanwhile, Denver is still the best team but, in a deeper conference, will have to traverse a trickier road to the Finals than it did last season. The Lakers are better than they were a year ago. (Despite recent history, I would actually be a bit surprised if Denver swept them again; at some point, the Lakers are bound to win one close game in this matchup.) Neither Minnesota nor Phoenix would be a pushover in the second round. And Denver wouldn’t have home-court advantage in the conference finals against the Thunder, who took three of four meetings in the regular season.
Yes, the Thunder are small and inexperienced. But they finished the regular season ranked third in offensive rating and fourth on defense; they have a bona fide MVP candidate in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, which is typically a prerequisite for a Finals berth; and they have an excellent coach in Mark Daigneault, whom I trust to navigate his first playoff gauntlet. It’s not often that you can pick a no. 1 seed and an underdog at the same time, but that makes this ostensibly out-of-the-box choice a perfect predictive middle ground.
What Will Be the Biggest Ripple Effect From This Postseason?
Beck: Damian Lillard gets traded—again. And the Bucks don’t stop there. If Milwaukee does indeed suffer another first-round flameout, everything and everyone is on the table, especially the older vets. Khris Middleton. Brook Lopez. And yes, Lillard. Remember, Dame wanted to land in Miami, not Milwaukee. His happiness, on and off the court, has been in question all season. The partnership with Giannis has been fine but not spectacular. And he’s turning 34 in July. The Bucks haven’t come close to the Finals since winning it all in 2021. A reset is overdue, and increasingly urgent. Yes, Giannis signed a three-year extension last fall, but as I wrote then, contracts mean nothing in today’s NBA. Stagnate for too long, and you might wake up to hear a podcast with your franchise star saying things like, “If there’s a better situation for me to win the Larry O’Brien [Trophy], I have to take that better situation.” I wouldn’t expect Antetokounmpo to ask out this summer, or maybe ever. But the Bucks have work to do to ensure it doesn’t happen.
Mahoney: The dissolution of the Clippers as we know them. There’s a pretty decent chance that the Clippers—who just months ago looked like a credible contender—might not make it out of the first round. And if that’s the case, they’ll head into the summer with James Harden poised to be a free agent and Paul George, still conspicuously without an extension, right behind him. For as much as George clearly enjoys playing with Kawhi, there’s some inevitable frustration in not playing with him, too. Leonard’s uncertain status for the first round makes the idea of an early Clippers out more understandable in some ways. Yet if he can’t find a way to get back on the floor and play through the swelling in his knee, that would mean three of Kawhi’s four seasons with the Clippers ended early due to injury. It feels like Harden will be back, regardless, but there will be compelling and less complicated alternatives for George on the market this summer. I’d expect PG, who’s about to turn 34, to take a hard look at them.
Kram: Contrary to their reputation, the Miami Heat haven’t brought on a new star in five years. They’ve added good players since signing and trading for Jimmy Butler in 2019—post-prime Kyle Lowry, post-prime P.J. Tucker, Terry Rozier—but no stars. That will change this summer, once the Butler-less Heat are eliminated early and Pat Riley decides to bolster a roster that has struggled through two regular seasons—and thus earned a much more challenging playoff path—in a row.
Perhaps they’ll aim for Donovan Mitchell, if the Cavaliers want to trade him before he can reach free agency in 2025. Maybe they’ll deal with the potentially cash-strapped Timberwolves for Karl-Anthony Towns, who can give the Heat a scorer and spacer while partnering with another elite big man defender, like his current successful partnership with Rudy Gobert. (Though former teammate Butler might not want to play with KAT again.) Or maybe they’ll pull off a surprise trade for a star that nobody expects. Regardless, the Heat will dominate off the court this summer, in an effort to get back to dominating on the court when the 2024-25 season tips off.
Pina: After a disappointing first-round exit that, in the mind of whoever owns the team, rationalizes a significant pay cut, the Timberwolves will slash payroll with a major trade this summer. That could involve Karl-Anthony Towns, Jaden McDaniels, Mike Conley, Naz Reid, or even Rudy Gobert. The only player safe is Anthony Edwards.
With KAT and McDaniels entering the first year of massive new contract extensions, Minnesota is pretty much guaranteed to cross the second apron if all those aforementioned names stay put. Fat chance the team’s old/new ownership is willing to pay a tax bill that’s nearly $30 million.
Almost every team in the league should start a dialogue with Minnesota’s front office to see who’s available and how much it’ll take to pry them away. After one of the happiest and most successful seasons in Timberwolves history, we may be a few months away from a traumatic summer that sees years of progress get snuffed out by the wettest of blankets.
Sohi: If you’re asking me who I think is at risk of breaking up, I’m going with just about everyone. The sun’s out past 7 p.m. these days, which means Uncuffing Season is on the horizon. In the context of the modern NBA, what else is new? So many of the names we could see in the rumor mill this offseason—Joel Embiid, Karl-Anthony Towns, Zion Williamson—are also-rans. As far as long-term deal-making implications go, if Damian Lillard and Donovan Mitchell—both of whom are playing for teams that they never asked to be traded to—end up in more attractive markets this offseason, I wonder if teams will rethink pushing back against player power in the future.
Chau: Donovan Mitchell’s formal trade request has been proofread and fact-checked. It’s sitting in the drafts, just waiting to be sent. The sweepstakes shall commence shortly.