Do the new Lakers have a shot against the Nuggets? Can the Pacers beat the Giannis-less Bucks? And how will the Clippers deal with Luka?
We’ve finally reached NBA Playoffs Eve. It’s one of my favorite holidays. Congratulations to all who celebrate. In preparation for what promises to be a thrilling, upsetting, and unpredictable postseason, here are 13 questions worth asking about Round 1. Some are hyper-specific and granular, while others zoom out to inspect a larger theme. All will eventually be answered, one way or another. Buckle up!
1. Will crunch-time offense be the Boston Celtics’ Achilles’ heel?
Last season, Boston’s offensive rating in the clutch was 110.9, good for 11th best. Not terrible but enough to yield a 24-13 record. Then in the playoffs, the Celtics went 5-6 in games that included actual crunch time. A modest strength melted into total disaster. Their offense was careless. Their defense collapsed. It’s a paradox, yes, but when the pressure ramped up, the Celtics embodied an anxious leisure. Almost everyone’s confidence seemed to exit stage left.
Things were different this season. Boston’s offensive rating in the clutch was a sizzling 120.5, the team’s net rating tripled from the year before, and it went 21-12 in those situations. (With Derrick White on the court, their offensive rating spiked to an outrageous 128.3 points per 100 possessions.) When the Celtics did struggle, some of their close losses weren’t necessarily because they did anything wrong. Go back and watch, and you’ll see well-choreographed sets fueled by selfless decisions that yielded quality shots. Open looks don’t always fall. But their process wasn’t always steady, and everything they did can’t be labeled a sign of growth.
In the final five minutes of games where the scoring margin was five or fewer points, the Celtics finished dead last in pace. Speed isn’t a prerequisite for efficiency, but that mark was palpable in the static possessions Boston suffered through whenever it came up short this season. The offense was more predictable than methodical. Instead of behaving with the same decisiveness that carried the Celtics through the game’s first 3.5 quarters, a curious tepidity seeped into their bloodstream.
This wasn’t in every game, for sure. They did in fact prevail in some pressure-packed environments. But if you zoom in a bit and look at how they performed with just three minutes left and a scoring margin of three points or fewer, the paint starts to smudge. Boston was 13-12 in these games, with a net rating of just plus-0.8 and a putrid offensive rating of 104.9.
Yes, it’s harder to create space against an opponent who’s upped their intensity and is locked in to get every stop. But Boston still lags behind other teams aspiring to win it all. The Mavericks, Nuggets, Thunder, and Sixers all generated over 120 points per 100 possessions. The Bucks, Lakers, and Clippers weren’t far behind.
Granted, we’re now analyzing an exceptionally small sample size that doesn’t necessarily portend doom, but the further we go down this rabbit hole, the worse it looks. Cut the clock down to one minute with a three-point margin, and the only teams that were less efficient than Boston were the Jazz, Wizards, Pelicans, and Pistons. Yuck.
According to PBP Stats, 53 players had a usage rate of at least 20 percent in high-leverage or very high-leverage situations this season. The only one who had a lower true shooting percentage than Jaylen Brown was Cole Anthony. Jayson Tatum ranked 35th.
That said, there were plenty of times when those two were awesome in big spots and led Boston to victory, particularly when they went fast and leveraged all the space around them:
Tatum and Brown know how to play with urgency. They know how to slice through myriad defensive coverages. They can orchestrate and hunt. Isolation basketball down the stretch probably won’t win Boston a title. Even when these two get the matchup they want, the Celtics are at their best when those All-Stars trust everyone around them a smidge more than they have.
The ability to handpick their favorite mismatch whenever they want helps explain why Boston had the most efficient offense in NBA history. But sometimes Tatum and Brown get a little too obsessed with attacking one-on-one. Settling for a long 2 should be the last resort, not the initial plan. It’s that mindset that gets them into trouble and lets once-hopeful opportunities slowly spiral out of control.
In the big picture, this could be nitpicking an otherwise unstoppable team. Boston had one of the most impressive regular seasons ever. It pulverized opponents on both ends. Jrue freaking Holiday is the fifth option in a starting lineup that was plus-11. There’s a chance, regardless of which team the Celtics see, that zero crunch-time minutes will be played in Round 1. Still, striking the right balance between unflappability and determination is key in the fourth quarter for this team to find the championship-snatching gear it was built to enjoy. The further they advance, the less likely it is that they’ll win every game by 20 points.
2. How will Jalen Brunson hold up?
Brunson is a real MVP candidate. (He was fifth on my official ballot.) But can he be as efficient and dialed in against a regular blitz and constant ball denial while getting hounded up and down the court? And what about on defense? As someone who did a terrific job sacrificing his body, taking charges, and absorbing constant shots to the chin and chest against larger players in the post throughout the regular season, he’ll be targeted frequently. That’s all tiring. Will Brunson have enough energy throughout a physically grueling series to positively impact fourth quarters?
During the regular season, his 3-point shooting fell off a cliff in the final frame, as the percentage of his made baskets that were unassisted rocketed way up. After the All-Star break, Brunson led the NBA in time of possession by over half a minute per game. OG Anunoby’s return can help reduce the load, but he’s not a playmaker. The burden on Brunson is about as large as it can be for any one star.
If there’s a stat that amplifies his immense responsibility, it can be found in this admittedly small sample size: In 10 clutch appearances since the All-Star break, Brunson’s usage rate (a league-high 44.4 percent) nearly eclipsed his true shooting percentage (45.3). That is … quite bad. Brunson is crafty, elusive, and technically picturesque. New York’s MVP candidate also has a right to be exhausted, in a series where he may not even be the best player.
3. How healthy is Giannis Antetokounmpo?
Milwaukee’s season comes down to how healthy Antetokounmpo actually is over the next couple of weeks. It’s been reported that the Bucks are preparing to be without him when their first-round series against the Pacers begins, but beyond that, nobody knows anything. What we do know is nobody else can fill his crater-making shoes.
In five games against the Pacers this season, Antetokounmpo averaged 42.2 points, 13.0 rebounds, 5.4 assists, 1.6 steals, and 1.2 blocks. He posted a higher true shooting percentage (73.6!) against Indy than any other opponent. Surreal. So was his on/off impact. With Giannis, Milwaukee’s net rating was plus-5.0. In 53 minutes without him, it was minus-28.3. All these games were before the trade deadline, which means the Bucks never had to deal with Pascal Siakam or a starting five that’s actually taken defense seriously (more on that later).
TL;DR: If Antetokounmpo misses a game or two in this series, the Pacers—an increasingly competitive team that had a higher post–All-Star break net rating than every team except the Celtics, Nuggets, and Thunder—should be seen as the favorite.
The Pacers’ obliteration of a Hawks team that had nothing to play for (and had been a sieve when it did) in Game 82 gives that number somewhat of an artificial boost, sure. But over the year, Indy went from one of the least competent defenses ever seen to something more legitimate, headlined by a relatively new starting lineup that allowed just 107.2 points per 100 possessions (the top-ranked Timberwolves allowed 108.4 points per 100 possessions this season).
Siakam, Andrew Nembhard, Aaron Nesmith, and Myles Turner can all help their team get stops. Tyrese Haliburton is the weak link who will be targeted by Damian Lillard and Khris Middleton, but those matchups can be schemed around, especially if Hali is hiding on someone like Patrick Beverley or Malik Beasley. The problems created by a healthy Antetokounmpo reside in a different dimension.
4. How healthy is Joel Embiid?
[Sigh.] Another superstar on the mend. Embiid’s numbers since he had knee surgery have been incredible. In five games, he’s averaging 30.4 points with a usage rate (39.7 percent) and true shooting percentage (64.1) that mirror the unpreventable production that was on display before his injury. Philadelphia won all five before its victory over Miami in the play-in.
How he moves around the court, though, isn’t the same. Embiid’s physical dominance has at times been thwarted by a diminished stamina that impacts his body and mind. Double teams aren’t spotted as quickly. He looks stiff, hardly the mobile rim protector and rebounding menace Philly needs him to be against the Knicks’ front line. If Embiid can’t physically resemble the MVP candidate he was, Philadelphia will have a tough time beating New York.
5. Can Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley coexist in meaningful moments?
Down the stretch of their 81st game, a critical win over the Pacers, J.B. Bickerstaff found himself in a sticky situation: watching his offense trudge through poor spacing against a defense that wasn’t, for several possessions in a row, the least bit uncomfortable.
With the Cavaliers’ lead down to two and a little over one minute on the clock, Bickerstaff finally made a change and swapped Caris LeVert in for Mobley. The sequence that led to that decision was all too familiar. This is the lingering, existential question that has placed a (temporary?) lid on Cleveland’s ceiling for two years: Can the Cavs win with two non-shooting bigs on the floor? Spacing matters. Mobley and Allen are incredibly gifted two-way big men who still take more of it away than they give. When they were together, Cleveland generated just 112.8 points per 100 possessions in non–garbage time minutes this season. That’s about what the Raptors mustered through their 25-win tank fest.
This is less about Mobley’s accuracy from deep (he’s shot much better this season and made 45.8 percent of his 3s after an ankle injury in late March) and more about how his poor reputation influences the opposing strategy. When he shares the floor with Allen, Cleveland’s 3-point rate is a hair below the last-ranked Nuggets. But stick either big in the corner throughout Cleveland’s Round 1 showdown against Orlando—a swarming, ferocious, physical force field that may spend stretches of this series looking like it has six defenders on the floor—and scoring in the paint will be an uphill battle. Orlando is long and active, with Jonathan Isaac, Wendell Carter Jr., Paolo Banchero, and the Wagner brothers all utilizing their size while Jalen Suggs scurries around as the roster’s beating heart.
Mobley and Allen are two skilled passers who can put the ball on the floor and chew up any extra room defenders give them off the ball, but can they do it well enough consistently to alleviate the spacing issues that make life harder for Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland? Or can Cleveland muck these games up and still prevail without scoring 100 points? Related:
6. So, can the Orlando Magic score?
It’s the slugfest that has NBA TV execs drooling with anticipation. We already covered Cleveland’s offensive issues; now it’s on to the Magic, a team that finished 22nd in offensive rating and 24th in 3-point percentage. The good news for Orlando: In four games against the Cavaliers during the regular season, the Magic—a team that can’t breathe if it doesn’t score points off turnovers—had quite a bit of success scoring points off turnovers, despite losing Suggs to an injury 10 minutes into one of those games. During the regular season, the Magic trailed only the Thunder in this category. It’s a major part of their identity. Cleveland might not be built to keep them honest on the perimeter, which is the first step toward total discombobulation.
The bad news for Orlando: If the Cavaliers take care of the ball, get back in transition, and limit second-chance opportunities, it’s hard to see how this group will score enough points to win four games. Not to be reductive—even though sometimes the most reductive NBA-related statements are also the truest—but if these games are close, I’m going with the team that has Donovan Mitchell on it. Orlando puked up 103 points per 100 possessions in the clutch this season, with a franchise player who turns into a yawning black hole late in games. Meanwhile, Franz Wagner’s 3-point percentage after the All-Star break was 18.5 percent. That is not a typo. It was 18.5 percent. If that doesn’t turn around, or if Suggs and Cole Anthony go into a slump at the wrong time, things could get ugly.
7. Will Josh Giddey be played off the floor?
The top-seeded Thunder are one of the most precocious teams in NBA history. They’ve competed tirelessly through a season that never really presented much adversity, winning 57 games with the third-best offense and fourth-best defense in the league. And still, their lack of experience and size are two valid reasons to be skeptical about OKC’s ability to make a deep playoff run.
There are setbacks and advantages baked into youth—what the Thunder don’t know can’t hurt them, right?—but, historically, the NBA playoffs aren’t an enjoyable experience for first-timers. The setting doubles as a classroom and pressure chamber. It’s where, beneath the harshest light, teams and individuals learn valuable information about themselves. For OKC, the most compelling on-court imperfection that has, at times, threatened an otherwise smooth ride to the top of the Western Conference is probably Giddey’s jump shot.
There were 54 players who attempted at least 200 “wide-open” 3s this season. Only Jalen Green and Derrick Jones Jr. sank fewer than Giddey. In the fourth quarter, he finished 7-for-30 on these shots. That’s obviously horrendous and helps explain why Giddey averaged only 5.9 minutes per fourth quarter this season, a figure topped by seven of his teammates, including Gordon Hayward, Cason Wallace, and Aaron Wiggins.
This will be a critical test for Mark Daigneault. Assuming defenders dramatize Giddey’s weakness and ignore him even more than they did during the regular season, will OKC’s head coach cut his starting point guard’s minutes? Or will he go the other way and attempt to ensure Giddey is more of a feature than a bug, by placing him in positions that don’t allow either the Kings or Pelicans to home in on his greatest flaw?
Whichever team faces the Thunder in Round 1 will help off Giddey, but there are scenarios where disregarding him entirely or stashing a subpar defender in his general vicinity won’t work. He’s a live, 6-foot-8 body with a deceptive first step, and he can slingshot himself into the paint off a dribble handoff. (Having a setter with gravity, such as Chet Holmgren or Jaylin Williams, doesn’t hurt.)
Throw in a well-timed slot cut from the weak side, and stopping Giddey’s momentum becomes a tough thing to stop:
Putting the ball in Giddey’s hands takes it out of SGA’s, J-Dub’s, or Chet’s. But good things still tend to happen when he’s involved (which is why the percentage of possessions in which he doesn’t touch the ball is only 16.9—that’s 23rd lowest out of 115 players who’ve logged at least 1,500 minutes).
The Thunder haven’t exactly struggled to score with Giddey on the court. In fact, in fourth quarters this season, the Thunder have generated 124 points per 100 possessions when he’s on the court and just 110.4 when he sits, a 13.6-point gap that’s wider than any other on the team. For the purpose of this discussion, that matters, but it can’t be trumpeted without acknowledging his reduced minutes or the fact that the disrespect opponents showed his jumper in the regular season will swell like a bruise in the playoffs.
The Thunder aren’t the Thunder without hard drives that collapse the defense and create an open look. And in the postseason, we’ll likely see more and more examples where Giddey’s presence distorts that identity. Harrison Barnes understood the assignment:
Giddey has to prove he can make outside shots in games that really matter. That’s what happens in the playoffs, a place that forces everyone to confront their hardest truths. Fun!
8. Ummm … will the Denver Nuggets miss Bruce Brown Jr.?
It’s hard to worry about the Nuggets right now. Not only did they win 57 games with the most dominant player on the planet in total command of every possession, but Denver’s more pressing concerns were already alleviated during last year’s championship run.
Q: Can Nikola Jokic survive on defense?
A: Yes.
Q: Can some of the smartest defensive minds in NBA history execute a strategy to bother Jokic’s two-man game with Jamal Murray?
A: No.
Q: What will they do when Jokic takes a seat?
A: Turn Aaron Gordon into the backup center.
And now, specifically relevant to their upcoming rematch against the Lakers:
Q: How can Michael Malone counter Darvin Ham’s decision to stick Rui Hachimura on his two-time MVP?
A: Lol.
If you’re grasping for a reason to doubt the defending champs, look no further than my initial question about their depth. Brown and Jeff Green are gone. Christian Braun, Reggie Jackson, and Peyton Watson are now the main reserves who round out Malone’s eight-man rotation, with Justin Holiday possibly sprinkled into the mix. If some more frontcourt options are necessary, should Gordon or Jokic find themselves in foul trouble, DeAndre Jordan or Zeke Nnaji is available.
None of these names leap off the page, but all are competent enough in a rotation that will be staggered to always feature primary options. Denver also leaned on its starting five more frequently than any other team this year. Those groups outscored opponents by 12.3 points per 100 possessions, which was also a league high. And their net rating with three starters and two bench players on the court was a whopping plus-24.7, which led the NBA.
9. Can the Los Angeles Lakers’ new players make a difference?
We pretty much already know that dominant efforts from LeBron James and Anthony Davis aren’t good enough to topple Denver, a team that swept them last postseason and they haven’t beaten since 2022. (How long ago was that? Russell Westbrook had a triple-double!)
But compared to last year’s roster, the Lakers now have a much more sensible rotation, with Taurean Prince, Gabe Vincent, Spencer Dinwiddie, and Jaxson Hayes in the mix. There’s a little more size and a lot more shooting.
Since March 1, no team had a higher true shooting percentage and the Lakers’ offensive rating when LeBron and AD shared the court was 120.0, which is far and away the most efficient stretch those two have ever enjoyed together. Almost everyone in Ham’s rotation has shot the crap out of the ball since then, converting at the rim and behind the arc at a rate that’s second to none.
The Nuggets have the best player in the series and lack any major weaknesses, leaving Los Angeles without much hope. But if that heat wave continues, with D’Angelo Russell, Austin Reaves, and Vincent holding up even a little bit on defense, this series will be more competitive than the 2023 Western Conference finals, when Jarred Vanderbilt killed L.A.’s spacing before Ham benched him in Game 4. This time around, none of L.A.’s offensive possessions will be four-on-five.
10. Are the Phoenix Suns the worst possible matchup for the Minnesota Timberwolves?
Minnesota’s worst defensive performance of the season came in a 133-115 loss to Phoenix on November 15. Fast-forward five months and Minnesota’s second-worst defensive performance of the season was a 125-106 loss against, you guessed it, Phoenix.
Now let’s backtrack about a week from that Game 82 debacle. On April 5, the Timberwolves also suffered through their worst offensive performance of the season, in a 97-87 defeat at the hands of, yes, that is correct, the Suns.
In the context of using it as a tool for playoff prognostication, the regular season is mostly a scattershot of noisy results that don’t provide much evidence either way. But Minnesota spent the 2023-24 season establishing a hard-nosed spirit, with dynamic flourishes and a defensive identity that raises its floor to a level the franchise hasn’t seen in 20 years.
Yes, they are also 0-3 when facing a frustrating, dangerous, outrageously talented, and immensely disappointing team that employs Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, and Bradley Beal. But Karl-Anthony Towns missed one of those games. And the Timberwolves were on the second night of a back-to-back in their November matchup against a Suns team that had two days rest. So many variables to consider! Let’s focus on the most recent showdown, though. All the major faces were healthy enough to compete; both teams were equally rested with real stakes and ample takeaways. To me, the moments that might actually foreshadow real trouble for Minny came when it was on defense, wilting in the face of Phoenix’s locked-in pick-and-roll.
The Suns were surgical and advantageous on these possessions. Their screens were solid and strategically set high on the floor and early in the shot clock, liberating first-class shooters who are as comfortable pulling up off the bounce as they are turning the corner, drawing help, and finding an open teammate. Minnesota’s vaunted drop coverage looked like chum in the water.
With Towns on Grayson Allen or Royce O’Neale, Phoenix repeatedly ran stagger screens that forced him to guard successive actions. KAT would be up to touch on the first pick, to take away a pull-up jumper, then get hit by a second screen and, well, it wasn’t pretty:
Phoenix also had its big men slip screens, hoping Drew Eubanks or Jusuf Nurkic could take advantage of help defenders on the weak side. Even in this example below, when Rudy Gobert showed why he’s the favorite to win his fourth Defensive Player of the Year by essentially covering two Suns at the same time, the Wolves couldn’t stop all that outside shooting:
Jaden McDaniels was Booker’s shadow most of that game, fighting over screens, refusing to be put in jail, making sure his fingertips were inches away from nearly every jumper before it soared to the rim. Phoenix responded by either attacking some other matchup or working to get Booker a better one. Naz Reid couldn’t play this better, but sometimes nothing matters when you’re up against one of the sharpest blades this sport has ever known:
Minnesota dug itself in a serious hole by committing 11 turnovers in the first quarter. But the Suns also looked unbothered executing their stuff in half-court situations. Not a death blow by any means, but something the Wolves should be worried about going into a series that feels closer to a coin flip than your typical no. 3 vs. no. 6 seeds traditionally should.
11. How often will the Phoenix Suns go small, if at all?
They may not need or want to go this route against one of the largest frontlines in the league, but the Suns have scorched earth when Frank Vogel trots out a lineup that has no traditional big in it.
In Game 82, the Suns only went small for about 40 seconds at the end of the first half. But we didn’t need any longer to see how the pros and cons would look. There was Anthony Edwards ramming his way through the paint for an and-1 (con), followed by this (hard pro):
Phoenix still has enough shooting to operate in space when Nurkic or Eubanks are on the floor, but the court transforms into a prairie when the Suns exploit five shooters at the same time. Plug O’Neale or Eric Gordon in at center and see what happens.
12. How will the Los Angeles Clippers deal with Luka Doncic?
The real question hovering over this series is, “What’s up with Kawhi Leonard’s knee?” But since the only analysis I can provide there is an exasperated shrug emoji, I figured it’d be more worthwhile to look at another critical question that might have no cogent answer: What’s L.A.’s plan to slow down Luka Doncic?
Ty Lue has had weeks to think about this, having already found himself at Doncic’s mercy in 2021, before Leonard dragged the Clippers back from the brink of a humiliating first-round elimination. (One overlooked tidbit about that thrilling seven-game series: Doncic only went 27-for-51 from the free throw line and still averaged 35.7 points and 10.3 assists per game, with a 40.7 usage rate. The result was less about LAC discovering a winning strategy and more about Luka oddly missing a whole bunch of free throws.)
In three games this season, L.A. threw the kitchen sink at Luka’s pick-and-rolls. It switched, blitzed, and switched then blitzed, cycling through their army of athletic wings, physical guards, and, um, consenting bigs who were asked to step outside their comfort zone and shuffle their feet 25 feet from the basket. Doncic’s man would track him over screens as other Clippers either stunted off the perimeter or packed the paint. Results were mixed, which, honestly, equals a best-case scenario for Lue.
It’s too strong to say Doncic was flustered by L.A’s tactics. He had an OK time hunting James Harden, Daniel Theis, and Norm Powell. But relative to most other defenses, the Clippers applied constant pressure and were, on occasion, able to speed him up into mistakes:
The blueprint to disrupt someone who belongs in a work of science fiction does not yet exist, but when healthy, the Clippers have so many on-ball options—Paul George, Leonard, Terance Mann, Russell Westbrook, Amir Coffey, P.J. Tucker—and enough brainpower to quickly execute whatever Lue’s instructions from the sideline might be. As the series progresses, Doncic will see it all, including, hopefully, for the sake of everyone who’s rooting for another instant classic, 40-plus minutes of Kawhi in his face.
This time around, the Clippers also have to worry about Lue’s old pal Kyrie Irving, which pretty much eliminates any chance to exhale when Doncic rests. And when they’re together, well, Dallas’ offensive rating in 43 minutes against the Clippers was a staggering 137.2. Both of these teams are good enough to reach the Finals. It’s cruel one will be bounced in Round 1.
13. Is the Dallas Mavericks defense for real?
I don’t have too many questions about the Mavericks right now. I’m pretty high on them coming into the playoffs. They have championship-caliber ingredients, a super-duper-star as their offensive engine, complemented by 3-point shooters, top-tier rim protection, open-floor athleticism, length, crunchtime chops, and a perfect sous-chef.
But can they consistently get stops against one of this season’s more efficient offenses? Will someone like Derrick Jones Jr. be a bit too integral? Is Dereck Lively II healthy?
According to Synergy Sports, Kawhi isolated more against Dallas in their December 20 matchup than in any other game he played this season. The Mavericks tried to stop him early by doubling and then putting themselves in rotation. It didn’t really work:
They overloaded the strong side. Kawhi cracked that one, too:
Watch below as Leonard waves Coffey over to the weak side before he forces Tim Hardaway Jr. to switch onto him. Harden enters the ball and, against a small Mavs lineup, Leonard commits himself to attacking all that space on his way to the rim:
Grant Williams isn’t on the Mavs anymore, so it’ll be interesting to see how Kidd responds now when Lue goes small with lineups that have absolutely torched the league. Will he pull Lively and Daniel Gafford then put Maxi Kleber/P.J. Washington at the five, or refuse to surrender his size?
All this might be irrelevant if Leonard, whose right knee kept him on the sideline for the season’s final eight games, doesn’t look like the same guy. But Dallas’ defense—particularly Doncic and Irving, who will be repeatedly hunted by Harden, George, and Leonard—will be put to the test.