The NBA playoff picture shifted drastically on the final day of the regular season. Who played Game 82 right and who failed miserably? We examine Sunday’s ripple effects.
The last day of the regular season, with all 30 teams playing and just two postseason matchups set, was a potpourri of intersecting stakes, styles, and skill levels. We got two-ways, 10-days, a below-the-rim all-timer from LeBron James, seeding manipulation from the Cleveland Cavaliers, who ended up being the only team with enough chutzpah to test the basketball gods, and a heroic New York Knicks team that doesn’t know any other way than going out on its shield.
In the West, with the top three seeds tied before Game no. 82 for the first time in NBA history, there was little incentive for chicanery. There’s a good chance the Thunder and Nuggets, who secured the no. 1 and no. 2 seeds, respectively, will respectively face Steph Curry and LeBron in the first round—not much of a reward—but tanking for the third seed wouldn’t have been much better, leading to a matchup with Kevin Durant. The postseason viability of the Lakers, Warriors, and Suns—aging and vulnerable but experienced and star-studded—promises to make each first-round matchup a box office event. We, the fans, certainly came out as winners on Sunday. Who else can say the same? And who, when the music stopped, found themselves wishing they were sitting somewhere else?
Winner: Orlando Magic
After beating the Bucks on Sunday, the Magic guaranteed themselves a playoff spot for the third time in 12 years. Orlando, with the season-long goal of avoiding the play-in, could have bolstered its roster with shooting at the trade deadline. But the Magic chose to keep their young core together, and in return, the team coalesced around its common goal. Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner were aggressive. Jalen Suggs and Jonathan Isaac, who played over 26 minutes in consecutive games last week for the first time since late 2019, stifled Damian Lillard and Brook Lopez, which also brings me to my next point …
Loser: Milwaukee Bucks
The Bucks, who entered Sunday with an opportunity to lock in the no. 2 seed, finished a disappointing regular season in an optimism-draining fashion. Their constant run-ins with the Indiana Pacers, who they’ll face in the first round, are cannon fodder for the whole “life gives you the same test until you pass it” theory. While it’s worth noting that the Pacers won four of their five regular-season games against the Bucks before the momentum-curdling Tyrese Haliburton injury and Pascal Siakam trade, they still boast a combination of paint penetration, quickness, and frontcourt stretchiness that should give Milwaukee fits.
Even then, I’d be willing to split hairs about the perks of playing the Pacers over the zombie Heat or healthy and hot Sixers, if not for the fact that the Bucks are limping—literally and metaphorically—into the postseason. They’re in a real focus-on-ourselves moment, and I don’t mean that as a compliment. The availability of Giannis Antetokounmpo, who is sidelined with a calf strain, remains a question. Lillard and Khris Middleton, who shot 8-for-29 against the Magic, have yet to find anything resembling a consistent, synchronised rhythm. The Pats are on cardio watch. The Bucks are now just 17-19 in the unceremonious Doc Rivers era.
Winner: Cleveland Cavaliers
The Cavaliers, against the venomless Charlotte Hornets, pulled off a hard-to-execute (and therefore hilarious) but ultimately successful tank job. As the Heat and Sixers were veering into play-in territory and the Knicks (who eventually came back to win in overtime) and Bucks were losing, J.B. Bickerstaff had two choices: go all-out for the no. 2 seed, securing home court for two rounds at the risk of running into Miami or Philly, or tank for the fourth seed and secure a matchup against a young, feisty but offensively challenged Orlando team. He chose the latter, pulling Max Strus (who posted a triple-double Sunday), Isaac Okoro, and Evan Mobley to run Cleveland’s crunch-time offense through Emoni Bates and Tristan Thompson. For a Cavs team that has been marred by injuries, rotational overlap, and execution issues, it was an understandable gambit, even though I don’t think a defense spearheaded by Jalen Suggs is going to be the palate cleanser that gets a semi-hobbled Donovan Mitchell back on track.
Winner: Tom Thibodeau
The Knicks don’t operate with a score-watching guile. Thibs wields a sledgehammer, not a calculator, and his game-by-game prerogative is consistent: win at any cost. Knicks-Bulls went to overtime on Sunday, and Jalen Brunson had his sixth 40-point, 40-minute game of the season (breaking his tie with Luka Doncic) and his third in the last three weeks. Donte DiVincenzo somehow played 53 minutes. (Side note: Why even bother trading for Bojan Bogdanovic? Any front office that employs Thibodeau should work the likelihood that he’ll always lean on the defense-first guy into its personnel decisions.) All of this, by the way, was in service of getting a no. 2 seed that everyone else in the East was trying to avoid. Some people fail upward. Thibs succeeds downward. There is a silver lining—if not a method—to his madness: The Knicks could make a deep run, and nabbing the no. 2 seed gives them home-court advantage for at least two rounds while allowing them to avoid a potential matchup with the Boston Celtics until the conference finals.
Winner: Los Angeles Lakers
The Lakers nabbed the eighth seed, avoiding the bottom of the play-in against the Warriors or Kings—who’ve both had the Lakers’ number this year—and setting them up to play the team they’ve now bullied into submission thrice: the Pelicans. Between Jonas Valanciunas—who got played off the floor quickly—and CJ McCollum, New Orleans provides delicious mismatches for the supercomputer in LeBron James’s brain to churn into easy points. He sagged off and psyched out Zion Williamson on Sunday in a manner reminiscent of their in-season tournament drubbing. D’Angelo Russell rediscovered his rhythm. Darvin Ham even called quick timeouts when the Pelicans went on a run. I don’t know what more you could ask from a Lakers game. Anthony Davis, who played a career-high 76 games this season, tweaked his back, but he seems fine. The only bad news: If L.A. beats New Orleans in the play-in, the reigning champions await in the first round.
Loser: New Orleans Pelicans
The Pelicans could have guaranteed themselves a playoff spot and the sixth seed with a win, but they sputtered out of the gate against a locked-in Lakers team, and got so caught up in reintegrating Brandon Ingram that Zion got lost in the shuffle. Their woes at home, where they’ll face the Lakers again in the play-in, continue. It’s hard to imagine the Pelicans making any kind of adjustment that the Lakers won’t immediately have a counter for.
Winner: Oklahoma City Thunder
The Thunder secured the no. 1 seed, which also gives them a better chance of avoiding the Lakers—whose size and speed gives them fits—in favor of an exhausted Curry, an exploitable New Orleans team, or the discombobulated Kings. Not much else to say. It’s been an incredible season for Oklahoma City and now it gets to enjoy a rare win-win in a year when having the higher seed doesn’t exactly correlate to an advantageous matchup.
Winner: The Play-In
The organic bracketology of Infinite Scenario Sunday, coming on the heels of a week of table-setting nail-biters, has delivered some star-studded story lines. Jimmy Butler might put Tobias Harris into witness protection. Trae Young is only three years removed from ending the Ben Simmons era in Philly. LeBron and Steph are fighting for their postseason lives on the other side.
I wouldn’t even be that surprised if DeMar DeRozan’s clutch exploits knocked one of the Heat or Sixers out this postseason. The Kings get at least one more game to light the beam—and avenge their first-round loss to the Warriors last year. Even the Lakers and Pelicans, two teams on opposite side of the spectrum when it comes to market size, share a history thanks to the Anthony Davis trade. If the Lakers lose to the Pelicans and the Warriors beat the Kings, we get a win-or-go-home Steph Curry vs. LeBron James game on Friday. Feels like a win to me.
Loser: Minnesota Timberwolves
In what should have been one of the more competitive games on Sunday, the Phoenix Suns whipped the Timberwolves for the third time this season and secured a first-round matchup against them along the way. The Wolves spent a chunk of the season toggling between the 1 and 2 seeds, only to fall to third after the last game of the season, kind of like a soccer team that controlled possession all game only to give up a goal in extra time. Phoenix, with its sharpshooting Big Three, presents a vexing challenge for Rudy Gobert and Karl-Anthony Towns on the perimeter. If the Suns make sure a chunk of their jumpers come from beyond the arc, they could use math to pull off an upset.
Loser: Miami Heat
The Heat employed their full rotation Sunday in the hope of getting out of play-in territory—and they beat the Raptors pretty handily. But the Pacers, Magic, and Sixers won their games too, so Miami’s win didn’t move the needle. Now they have to play the Sixers, the hottest team in the NBA, for the right to either play the Knicks or Celtics on the road.
Winner: Nepotism
Shout-out to Thanasis Antetokounmpo, Pete Nance, and Isaiah Mobley, who were a combined minus-30 on Sunday.