
One of the least anticipated matchups in recent memory is upon us. The Denver Nuggets and Miami Heat. Let’s be real here. No LeBron, no Jayson Tatum, and no Boston Celtics legends in the stands. Media members have been openly grousing all week about having to cover the Nuggets. That’s a cornball position to take for what could be the rise of a new Western Conference giant versus an all-time underdog run.
There isn’t much history between these two franchises except for an ignominious blindside retaliation by Nikola Jokić toward Markieff Morris in 2021. However, Morris is long gone. Jimmy Butler and the two-time MVP are the obvious primary storylines, but there are Chekhov’s guns lying all around with hairpin triggers that have the potential to be pulled at any moment.

The Heat have the hottest trigger finger in the league right now. Miami was the NBA’s best 3-point shooting team en route to the 2022 Eastern Conference Finals. After falling to 27th in 3-point percentage during the following season, they rediscovered their touch behind the arc, despite losing marksman Tyler Herro for almost the entire run. The Heat have been the NBA’s most efficient 3-point shooting team for the last month and a half. Denver is second in percentage. Neither team is as reliant on the deep space triple as Golden State, and they didn’t even rank in the top half of playoff teams in average 3-pointers in 2023.

Tyler Herro is invaluable to Miami. Don’t listen to those weirdos who believe they made this run because the former Sixth Man of the Year was injured. In true Heat Culture fashion, Herro broke his hand midway through Game 1 of their first-round series diving for a loose ball. Since then, the next man up Caleb Martin has taken advantage of those minutes and transformed into Miami’s secondary option. Herro is expected to return to the Heat lineup by the time this series shifts back to Miami for Game 3.

But he’ll likely be back to getting into rhythm with the second unit and it won’t be at an expense to Martin’s minutes. Spoelstra is going to ride this hot streak until the wheels fly off. In this postseason, Martin has the second-highest shooting percentage among non-big men who have played over 200 minutes. No. 1 is Devin Booker. His 43.8 percent shooting from downtown is spectacular, and his true shooting percentage is the best of any player in the Finals.

Adebayo’s ability to stymie Jokić is obviously important. The Heat’s switch-heavy defense won’t be activating that function when Adbayo is attached to Jokić because the latter is a four-time All-Defense honoree. He can’t stop Jokić, he can only hope to contain the players most likely to win Employee of the Month at the dock. Adebayo can’t slouch on offense for another series though.

Bam was borderline comatose in the Eastern Conference Finals. Not only will his capacity to keep Jokić from scoring at will dictate the pace of this series, but after getting reduced to rubble in the series against Boston’s more defensively inclined lineup, Spoelstra has to count on Adebayo as more than just a glorified screener on the other end. Adebayo shot 8-for-26 from the field over the final two games of the ECF and was turnover-prone throughout the series, before rallying with seven assists in the series clincher.

Home-court advantage flew out the window for Boston and Miami. Probably because these two teams are so familiar with one another after a litany of battles over the years. Miami’s rotation was basically listing Boston as a second residence on their tax forms. Denver is a different case. The high altitude has always been considered an advantage for the Nuggets, but that strength has been amplified during a season in which Denver was already the class of the Western Conference.

Meanwhile, Miami is the city of temptation. Scoff at it if you want, but the lure of South Beach is impossible to ignore in early June. Not to mention the humidity that had Mike Greenberg’s Knicks in a state of disarray. At home, the Nuggets are 42-7, including 8-0 in the postseason. South Beach is trying to avoid becoming an underwater city, the Pepsi Center lies 5,280 feet above sea level. Historically, Nuggets teams have turned to fast-paced offenses to give themselves an advantage. Studies have shown that in every major professional sport, Denver has the league’s biggest home-field advantage. The only exception is hockey where Calgary, the second-highest elevation of any NHL franchise, comes in second.

Miami comes into the Finals with a wealth of championship experience. Kevin Love, Kyle Lowry, Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo, Tyler Herro, Duncan Robinson, Gabe Vincent, and Eric Spoelstra all appeared in prior NBA Finals. Duncan Robinson, Vincent, Adebayo all cut their teeth in the Bubble Finals loss to L.A. Herro was the youngest player since Magic Johnson to start an NBA Finals game in 2020. Butler went shot-for-shot with LeBron James and Anthony Davis in those Finals. Kevin Love has now reached five postseasons and each one has ended in the NBA Finals, while Lowry earned his title in 2019 with the Toronto Raptors. There’s also the ornery sherpa Udonis Haslem, who has led Miami to seven NBA titles. OK, led is a strong word. He’s the spiritual plane leader. He ascended to the great basketball beyond years ago, but they keep his husk around as a source of wisdom.
Denver’s core is in their Huggies by comparison. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope was a critical member of the Lakers 2020 championship roster and Jeff Green made a cameo in the 2018 NBA Finals with Cleveland, but that’s it. Miami has a monopoly on the Finals experience equity, for whatever that’s worth.

Jokić is a fundamentally flawed defensive big. Miami killed Boston from behind the arc in the Eastern Conference Finals as a necessity. Driving the lane consistently and finishing inside was arduous against Time Lord and Big Al. However, opponents shot 68.5 percent at the basket when Jokić was the closest defender, the second-highest in the league among players who contested at least four shots per game. Jimmy rolling downhill on Jokić, and Malone sending help defenders could result in an avalanche of points for Miami over the course of a seven-game series.

Both the Heat and Nuggets have fashioned themselves as a team that demands more respect. The truth is the casual fan knows very little about both of these teams. It’s not the Celtics and Lakers, but variety is the spice of life. Denver is somehow both the NBA’s best playoff offense, and one of its least intriguing teams who haven’t had much of a say in the top of the West in the 50 years since transitioning to the ABA. Intro to Jokić will probably be lightly watched. Miami has been in the thick of these title races before, but usually with a supernova talent like Dwyane Wade, LeBron, Bosh, or Shaq in tow. The Jimmy Butler era has been all about grit and John Does.

Jokić is the best passing big man the NBA has possibly ever seen and is simultaneously regarded for his lack of flair. Jokić may not even be the most beloved Nugget yet. David Thompson, Mahmoud Abdul-Rauf, the Doug Moe-era Nuggets teams, and Carmelo were more celebrated, but Jokić’s incredible offensive efficiency sets him apart—as well as those two MVPs. Winning an NBA Finals would vault him to the next level of NBA superstardom.

Jimmy Butler’s superstar application process has been denied every season. Suddenly, his workman in Timbs game has become the most discussed topic of the postseason and he fulfilled his own year-old prophecy by spearheading Miami’s Game 7 shellacking of the Boston Celtics. He’s been within a game or two of Larry O’Brien before. Earning a Finals MVP and a ring would thrust him into the superstar penthouse.
It’s been nearly two years since Jokić shoved Markieff Morris from behind, forcing him to miss four months of action and sparking a melee that culminated in an iconic image of Heat players standing outside the Nuggets locker room looking for Jokić. They got him now.