Tampa Bay Lightning 2021-22 NHL Season Preview

The 2021-22 NHL season is coming and it’s time to take a look at all 32 teams. We’ll examine best- and worst-case scenarios, looking at the biggest questions, breakout candidates, and more for each franchise. Today, we preview the Tampa Bay Lightning.

2020-21 Season Review

• Record: 36-17-3 (75 points) third place in NHL Central Division
• Postseason: Won Stanley Cup over Montreal Canadiens in five games
• Offensive leader: Brayden Point (56 games, 23 goals, 25 assists, 48 points

• Free Agent Additions: Corey Perry, Pierre Edouard-Bellemare, Brian Elliott, Brent Seabrook (LTIR)
• Free Agent Subtractions: Barclay Goodrow (trade to New York Rangers), Tyler Johnson (trade to Chicago Blackhawks), Yanni Gourde (Seattle Kraken), Blake Coleman (Calgary Flames), Luke Schenn (Vancouver Canucks)

Biggest question facing the Tampa Bay Lightning?

• Did they lose too much depth?

The Lightning are going to have a full season of Nikita Kucherov and are still loaded with all-stars all over the lineup. Kucherov, Steven Stamkos, Brayden Point, Victor Hedman, Andrei Vasileskiy is still as good of a core as you will find anywhere in the NHL. But one of the driving forces behind the Lightning’s past two Stanley Cup wins was the line of Goodrow, Gourde, and Coleman, giving them a third scoring line that could not only score goals, but also shut down opposing offenses. When that trio was together, including regular season and playoffs, they controlled nearly 60% of the shot attempts and outscored teams by a 26-14 margin during 5-on-5 play. It was one of the most effective lines in all of hockey, and now all three of them are gone. Along with that trio, they also said goodbye to longtime standout Tyler Johnson in a salary cap clearing trade.

That is four significant depth pieces that are now playing someplace else.

[Related: Every free agent signing by all 32 NHL teams]

Corey Perry and Pierre Edouard-Bellemare were brought in as free agents, while their talent pipeline is going to be put to the test. Can players like Ross Colton and Alex Barre-Boulet step up and help fill that void in the lower half of the lineup? If they can, the Lightning will be a force to be reckoned with once again.

What’s the salary cap situation?

With big money all-stars all over the lineup the Lightning are as close to the cap as a team can get, and one of the biggest storylines of last season was the way they exceeded in the postseason due to Kucherov spending the entire season on long-term injured reserve. By the time the playoffs rolled around they were close to $10 million over the cap. Don’t blame them, though. The NHL allows it and it was all within the rules. Still, though, they did have to make some significant changes this offseason and had to say goodbye to the aforementioned forwards. Point just signed a new massive deal this offseason that will kick in next year, while their entire core is locked in place long-term. The only major UFA’s they have in the coming years are Ondrej Palat, Patrick Maroon, and Jan Rutta. They will probably lose all three of them given the cap, but they are replaceable players right now.

Breakout Candidate

• Alex Barre-Boulet

The Lightning always seem to have a couple of undersized, but wildly productive forwards that slipped through the NHL’s cracks on their roster. Boulet seems to fit the profile to be the next player to emerge from their farm system. Undersized? Check. Undrafted? Check. Scored a ton of goals at every level he played at? Check again. He has all of the boxes covered and should be able to get a real opportunity this season. He has absolutely dominated the American Hockey League the past three seasons, being one of the top goal scorers and point producers in the league, and scored three goals in his brief NHL action a year ago.

Best-Case Scenario

All of the stars stay healthy and players like Barre-Boulet and Ross Colton step forward to help fill the void left by the free agency/offseason departures of Johnson, Goodrow, Gourde, and Coleman. This should still be one of the best teams in the league and a top-five Cup contender. They have been the most dominant team in the NHL over the past seven years and there should be no sign of slowing down. The best case scenario? We get the NHL’s first three-peat since the New York Islanders 1980s dynasty.

Worst-Case Scenario

Since the start of the 2013-14 regular season the Lightning have been in the playoffs in seven out of eight years; won more regular season games than any other team (379 — 11 more than next closest team, while only two other teams, Pittsburgh and Washington, have more than 360); won more playoff games than any other team (70 — the next closest team has 49 playoff wins); been in the Conference Final/Semifinals five times; and have been in three Cup Finals, winning two of them. The roster is still absolutely loaded with superstars. They are a sure-fire playoff team. The worst case scenario here is probably running into a hot goalie in the First Round, or not having some young players step forward on the bottom of the lineup, or just having a team that is worn down after back-to-back Cup runs in a short period of time. After back-to-back Stanley Cups, you can probably accept that if you are a Lightning fan.

PointsbetTampa Bay Lightning Stanley Cup odds

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New York Rangers: 2021-22 NHL Season Preview

The 2021-22 NHL season is coming and it’s time to take a look at all 32 teams. Over the next month we’ll be examining best- and worst-case scenarios, looking at the biggest questions, breakout candidates, and more for each franchise. Today, we preview the New York Rangers.

2020-21 Season Review

• Record: 27-23-6 (60 points); fifth place in East Division
• Postseason: Missed playoffs. Drafted Brennan Othmann with the 16th pick.
• Offensive leader: Artemi Panarin (42 games, 17 goals, 41 assists).

• Free Agent Additions: Barclay Goodrow (trade from Lightning), Ryan Reaves (trade from Golden Knights), Patrik Nemeth, Dryden Hunt, Sammy Blais (trade from Blues), Jarred Tinordi.
• Free Agent Subtractions: Pavel Buchnevich (trade to Blues), Tony DeAngelo (buyout), Colin Blackwell (Kraken expansion draft), Phillip Di Giuseppe (Canucks), Brendan Smith (Hurricanes), Brett Howden (trade to Golden Knights).

Biggest question for Rangers

• Did they lose their wits chasing grit?

Did the Rangers abruptly fire Jeff Gorton and make other key front office changes because of the Tom Wilson – Artemi Panarin incident? Was countering Wilson the guiding light during Chris Drury’s first offseason as Rangers GM?

Ryan Reaves said that he wasn’t acquired because of Tom Wilson — at least not directly. Even Tom Wilson himself insisted it wasn’t all about him.

Sometimes people want to ignore the elephant in the room. Sometimes they’re stubborn, or in denial, about obvious truths. Especially when one person seems to leave you wildly flustered, and possibly overreacting.

[PHT’s offseason trade tracker]

Wilson-related or not, the Rangers sacrificed skill for grit before the 2021-22 season. Maybe losing Pavel Buchnevich will make sense in the long run. But next season? It sure feels like a painful subtraction, and maybe even an unforced error.

When the Lightning traded for Barclay Goodrow, it was part of a series of moves to go over the top. That was already a stacked team, one that forged a historic regular season. The Rangers, meanwhile, haven’t truly made the playoffs since 2016-17.

(No, you should not count getting squashed like a bug during the 2019-20 Qualifying Round.)

So, was this team already skilled enough to focus so much on sandpaper? It seems dubious. Then again, Gerard Gallant worked wonders in Vegas, and sometimes that team got a bit fixated on ferocity.

What’s the salary cap situation?

Even during a genuine rebuild, the Rangers weren’t shy to spend big money on big names. They’re still the Rangers, after all.

Artemi Panarin and Jacob Trouba combine for about $19.6M in cap hits through 2025-26. Maybe the Rangers should have traded Chris Kreider. Instead, they kept him on a deal that could get scary ($6.5M AAV through 2026-27). Igor Shesterkin could end up being better than a $5.67M goalie. With just 47 games of NHL experience, Shesterkin still counts as a leap of faith.

That’s already a lot of money for a team that hasn’t delivered yet. And things could get even more expensive for the Rangers after the 2021-22 season. (Or there could be some agonizing losses.)

Ryan Strome ($4.5M) and most importantly, Mika Zibanejad ($5.35M) are both 28-year-old centers entering contract years. Two different players, sure, but both present the Rangers with riddles to solve.

[PHT’s 2021 NHL Free Agent Tracker]

Adam Fox was already surging toward a big payday. He’s 23, a right-handed defenseman, and just won a Norris Trophy. Mix in a sometimes-outrageous offseason of spending on defensemen, and ominous music plays for the Rangers’ salary cap. Fox merely being an RFA gives the Rangers a key advantage, but Cale Makar‘s $9M seems like a reasonable placeholder. If maybe an optimistic one.

Fox isn’t the only young player the Rangers need to leave room for.

Kaapo Kakko enters a contract year, while Alexis Lafreniere has two years left on his rookie contract.

Overall, the Rangers need to get the balance right. If they sign both assuming too much growth, they could get burned. If they wait too long, Kakko and Lafreniere could drive up their value. There are worse problems to have, but these are challenges nonetheless.

The Rangers approach the tougher stages of a rebuild. Will they turn young prospects into stars, ideally on team-friendly contracts? Can they support that young talent with savvy additions? Chris Drury has his work cut out for him.

Breakout Candidate

• Kakko/Lafreniere

All but the most patient observers would admit that there have been some disappointments with both prospects so far.

In the cases of both Kakko and Lafreniere, they were hyped as very NHL-ready prospects. Instead, each player has struggled with immediate jumps to the big time.

Those stumbles aren’t the end of the world. Thanks to having two seasons in the NHL, Kakko serves as the best reminder to be patient.

Consider his Evolving Hockey Player Card from 2019-20, which was concerning even with caveats for young players:

Kakko Evo Player Card 2019-20 New York Rangers: 2021-22 NHL Season Preview
via Evolving Hockey

Yikes, right? Then, in 2020-21, Kakko looked like a player who could really gain steam.

Kakko player card Evo New York Rangers: 2021-22 NHL Season Preview
via Evolving Hockey

Frankly, if I were running the Rangers, I’d be tempted to extent Kakko before he surges to another level. (If he’d listen to offers right now, of course.)

With some prospects, people picture too much growth. They assume a 25-year-old player has more runway than maybe they actually do. But Kakko (20) and Lafreniere (19) are both indeed in the age ranges where players can take big leaps.

Don’t be surprised if both do so. Maybe the Rangers are assuming too much, but betting in young players is better than hoping aging veterans can hold on.

Bonus points if other young players come through for the Rangers in 2021-22, too. Ideally, Vitali Kravstov isn’t just learning from Ryan Reaves …

Best-Case Scenario for 2021-22 Rangers

Gallant represents a huge coaching upgrade. Panarin – Zibanejad tear it up, and stay healthy. Their defense improves, and Shesterkin cleans up the rest. Kakko, Lafreniere, and others flourish. The Rangers become dangerous, and in a hurry.

Worst-Case Scenario for 2021-22 Rangers

That fixation on feistiness leaves the Rangers with more fights and hits, but the same middling standings results. Kakko and Lafreniere stagnate. Gallant’s system can’t overcome limitations on defense beyond Fox and a few others. Things fall apart, and management takes all the wrong lessons from that collapse.

PointsbetNew York Rangers’ Stanley Cup odds

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James O’Brien is a writer for Pro Hockey Talk on NBC Sports. Drop him a line at phtblog@nbcsports.com or follow him on Twitter @cyclelikesedins.